SAN FRANCISCO — Ten plate appearances can be a mirage. Twenty can be a crapshoot. When you get to 40 or so, the forensic evidence builds.
Not every Dodger was thrilled to see Madison Bumgarner glowering from the pitching rubber Friday night, particularly since the Giants lefty was originally scheduled to pitch Wednesday.
Bumgarner wanted the start pushed back to extend as little hospitality to the guests as he could. But Kiké Hernandez had reason to look forward. He was 16 for 36 lifetime against Bumgarner. He knew he would play and that he could make a difference in a game the Dodgers needed like plasma.
The Dodgers did win 3-1. And now Hernandez’s worksheet against one of the best southpaws in the game is 19 for 39, in 40 plate appearances.
He got singles in the first, third and fifth innings. The Dodgers left him hanging the first time, but he scored a tying run on a Manny Machado single in the third. The third time, Justin Turner followed with a first-pitch home run. Hyun-jin Ryu turned in six innings, five relievers saw it through, and the Giants bounced into five double plays.
The Dodgers stayed within one game of Colorado in the National League West and can clinch no worse than the second wild-card spot Saturday if they win or if St. Louis loses to the Cubs, in a game that starts three hours before the Dodgers and Giants do.
“I’ve thought all along we’ve controlled our own destiny,” Hernandez said. “I thought so when we were two and a half games ahead (of Colorado) and even though we’ve put ourselves in this position, it really hasn’t changed.”
Colorado’s win over Washington put the Rockies in the playoffs regardless. A Western Division tie causes a one-game shootout for the title at Dodger Stadium on Monday afternoon.
But two Dodger losses and two Cardinal wins would force L.A. to play a 163rd game in St. Louis on Monday. The winner would then play the top wild-card team, either the Cubs or Brewers, on Tuesday. No one should dive deeper into these scenarios without Advil.
“Obviously it’ll be a little bit nicer to win the division than it would be to go win a suicide game,” Hernandez said, “Anything can happen in one game. But as long as we keep winning we’ll be OK.”
Hernandez is a capable right-handed hitter against most, but his ownership of Bumgarner is just another blessed example of baseball’s inscrutability.
J.D. Martinez is hitting .160 against Bumgarner. Andrew McCutchen is hitting .163. Hanley Ramirez wound up at .161. Jayson Werth retired with an .097 average.
Manager Dave Roberts said Hernandez “sees him real well,” and good luck explaining that.
“We see him a lot, he’s in the division,” Hernandez said. “I watch a little video to see his last few starts, but I don’t spend any more time on him than anyone else. He’s one of the best in the game. When I started hitting against him I had some luck against his fastball, then he made some adjustments with his breaking ball and I didn’t hit him real well, and then I adjusted again.
“There’s no science out there. The first few times, the pitcher has the advantage, but then you get an idea. With guys like that, it doesn’t matter what you’ve done in the past.”
The Dodgers were off Thursday, after the Tuesday and Wednesday losses in Arizona that thinned the ice underneath their feet. It was welcome, especially when the plane from Phoenix didn’t land until 3 a.m.
Hernandez said he also got a pickup when he read a quote from St. Louis pitcher Adam Wainwright.
“He said that you have two choices,” Hernandez said. “You can choose to lay down or you can go out there and play like your hair’s on fire. I liked that a lot. It was a little different way of looking at it, and it was the mentality I came out with tonight.”
Ryu’s only blemish was a home run by Nick Hundley in the second inning, and Manny Machado got that run back with an RBI single in the third. Ryu left after six innings, which left it up to the bullpen, and it might or might not have been a coincidence that some rowdy Dodgers fans got into it with the local authorities and were escorted out of AT&T Park. Anxiety medication doesn’t mix well with alcohol in late September.
But the relievers actually pacified the area, giving up one walk and two hits in three innings. The Giants had runners on first and second with nobody out in the seventh, and Pedro Baez struck out two and handed off to Alex Wood, who faced pinch-hitter Chase d’Arnaud.
Wood is not in the bullpen by choice, although he’s been there before. “It doesn’t take me a long time to get ready,” he said. “It is what it is. We’re trying to win the division.”
Wood struck out d’Arnaud on a changeup, and Kenta Maeda and Kenley Jansen pitched the eighth and ninth.
As a starter, Wood was an All-Star in 2017 and finished ninth in the Cy Young Award vote. This year he still put in 150 innings, and his dropoff hasn’t been cataclysmic. But, in the perpetual quest for improvement, Wood has gone to a quicker tempo.
“It’s helped my stuff a lot,” he said. “It probably is the best stuff I’ve had all year. Unfortunately, you don’t get to see it that often, and that’s the frustrating part. But you’re always playing with things, trying to find something.”
The Dodgers aren’t seeing the playoffs as well as Hernandez sees Bumgarner. On Friday night the fog began to lift.