Why is red California turning purple?

In 1961, President John F. Kennedy was asked about the disaster that was the Bay of Pigs invasion in Cuba, and the Massachusetts Democrat responded by saying, “Victory has 100 fathers and defeat is an orphan.”

I would amend this statement by adding that if the stakes are high enough and the defeat is spectacular enough, not only is failure an orphan — we might need Maury Povich to determine the paternity of this bastard child.

You can already see the blame game shaping up on the GOP side of the aisle, to explain away its anticipated losses in next month’s midterm elections.For the partisan Democratic take, I would recommend paying attention to any cable news talking head who is labeled a “Republican strategist” or “former Bush advisor.” These people will quickly and gleefully place the blame on President Trump, who currently has a 44 percent approval rating, according to the most recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll.

They may not be entirely wrong — and I would imagine that more than a handful of Republican members of Congress agree with them.Then, you have the plausible excuse that the party that occupies the White House always has a tough time in midterm elections. President Obama can attest to this fact, as the Democrats lost six Senate seats and 63 seats in the House of Representatives in 2010, and nine Senate seats and 13 house seats in 2014.

This is true. Since 1938 the party in control of the White House has gained seats in the House in only two midterm elections: 1998 and 2002.If the GOP gets obliterated this November, expect to hear the above explanations most frequently. But if the GOP loses control of the House by a narrow margin, you should cross the Golden Gate Bridge before you start pointing fingers, because the blame lies in California.

In 2008, California voters approved Proposition 11, which created a Citizens Redistricting Commission — made up of five Republicans, five Democrats, and four commissioners who don’t belong to either party — to draw state legislative districts. In 2010, voters approved Proposition 20, which expanded the commission’s power to include congressional districts. Reform advocates felt that these changes were needed to ensure fair and competitive elections, as incumbent parties retained every single congressional and state legislative seat in the 2004 statewide election.

The theory was that if regular people — instead of political experts — drew the district lines, districts would consist of communities of similar interest and elections would become more competitive.

As it turns out, the commission produced exactly the opposite results, and California voters were left with precisely the type of partisan gerrymandering they wanted to avoid.

Democrats immediately figured out how to game the system to get their desired result.

As part of a national look at redistricting, the nonprofit journalism site ProPublica says that the commission “reconstructed the Democrats’ stealth success in California, drawing on internal memos, emails, interviews with participants and map analysis. What emerges is a portrait of skilled political professionals armed with modern mapping software and detailed voter information who managed to replicate the results of the smoked-filled rooms of old.”

Meanwhile, ProPublica found that “California’s Republicans were hardly a factor. The national GOP stayed largely on the sidelines, and individual Republicans had limited success influencing the commission.”

Where was then-California Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring and then-House Republican Chief Deputy Whip Kevin McCarthy? Professor Doug Johnson, a fellow at the Rose Institute in Claremont, told ProPublica: “Republicans didn’t really do anything … They were late to the party, and essentially non-entities in the redistricting process.”

One former Republican member of the California delegation told me that when it became apparent that the new map was a Democratic gerrymander, they tried to build support among Golden State Republicans to challenge the work product.

However, McCarthy quickly shut it down. The ambitious congressman from Bakersfield was drawn into a safe Republican district, and convinced other Republicans in safe districts that the new lines were actually good for the GOP and their future electoral prospects. This move successfully blocked all efforts to have the commission’s Democratic-friendly tilt overturned.

After redistricting, Republicans immediately went from 19 to 14 seats and no Democratic-held district has been lost. To make matters worse, today, five currently held Republican congressional districts are listed as “toss ups” by the highly respected University of Virginia Center for Politics.

If Democrats win control of the House and Kevin McCarthy is denied the speakership he has long coveted, he can blame himself for putting Nancy Pelosi in the speaker’s chair.

John Phillips can be heard weekdays at 3 p.m. on “The Drive Home with Jillian Barberie and John Phillips” on KABC/AM 790.

09.10.2018No comments
If commercial real estate was sold more like residential …

Commercial real estate professionals differ from our residential colleagues in many ways.

But, how would our industry change if we adopted some of the practices of our residential brethren? Well, to coin an old phrase — “seven ways from Sunday” — here it goes.

We would share our inventory with a realty board.

Residential agents belong to boards of Realtors. Many fine things are accomplished with this connection. Available houses for sale are readily accessible through a common multiple listing service. Status – active, pending, and closed – are required of each listing. No such clearinghouse exists for commercial real estate.

We would be more consumer-facing.

Once a listing is published through a realty board the information flows to consumer websites such as Realtor.com, Zillow, and Redfin. That transparency enables you to search for a house in your bathrobe from the comfort of your kitchen table. You can see commercial listings on LoopNet, but the process is flawed, the information incomplete, and the goal is to point you toward a commercial broker for details.

We would track “real metrics.”

Because the multiple listings are consistent — the number of houses on the market, number of houses sold, market time and new sale escrows — they can be tracked and provide residential agents a true look at what’s happening. In CRE, we are forced to react to our “gut feel” for activity or to rely upon global stats such as vacancy factors or absorption.

Our use of technology would be much greater.

Wow! This topic alone is column-worthy. CRE professionals have been slow to adopt technology. We are an aging industry stuck with 1980’s methodology. Doubt this? Some in my office still use a Rolodex!

The majority of our deals would be sales not leases.

Generally, 8 of 10 deals we do are leases. Our counterparts transact just the opposite – with many residential agents never doing leases.

Most of our transactions would be owner based.

Many in the commercial trade only represent occupants. These are known as “tenant rep” firms — a specialty that places companies that seek to occupy buildings as owners or tenants. Shunned are assignments that require sourcing a tenant or buyer for a vacant building on behalf of the owner.

Standardization would be encouraged.

Boards of realty have strict codes of conduct and forms for everything. Agents “toe the line” lest they be ousted from the board and lose access to available inventory. A death sentence of sorts as a potential ouster creates a sense of cooperation among agents and firms.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services. He can be reached at 714.564.7104 or abuchanan@lee-associates.com 

09.10.2018No comments
HOA Homefront: Bills that made the cut in Sacramento – and some that didn’t

Readers: Various HOA bills passed the California Legislature, were approved by Gov. Jerry Brown and will become law in 2019. Future columns will provide more detailed discussions of these new laws.

September 30 was the last day for Gov. Jerry Brown to sign or veto bills passed by the state legislature in 2018. Many bills affecting HOAs were signed, and two were vetoed. Here’s a rundown:

SB 261: This bill, signed by the governor on Sept. 27, amends Civil Code 4040 to allow homeowners to use email to request the HOA send communications, also via email, to the homeowner, and amends Civil 4360 to require 28 days instead of the current 30-day notice to homeowners for proposed rule changes.

SB 721: SB 721, with HOAs exempted, requires multilevel residential properties to conduct inspections of balconies and other elevated elements every six years. Signed into law Sept. 17, the final version of the bill exempted HOAs from its requirements.

SB 1016: Signed on Sept. 13, this adds Section 4745.1 to the Civil Code, protecting the installation of “time of usage” meters for electric vehicle charging stations. HOAs may impose reasonable requirements on the requesting owner.

AB 2912: Requires boards to review the HOA financials monthly instead of the current quarterly requirement. The new law, approved by the governor Sept. 14, requires all HOAs to have fidelity (dishonesty) insurance in place. It also requires documentation of board authority for expenditures over $10,000 or 5 percent of the HOA’s budget, whichever is lower.

SB 1128 and 1265: Two of the most troubling bills for California HOAs this year were Senate Bills 1128 and 1265. Both were vetoed.

SB 1265 would have made it much harder for common interest development associations to preserve elections if technical errors occurred and would have outlawed the ability of association members to adopt reasonable board eligibility standards. SB 1128 originally made some technical and sensible changes to the Davis-Stirling Act, but late in the legislative process it was amended, adding the harmful content of SB 1265.

Gov. Brown on Sunday, Sept. 30, used identical veto messages, stating in part that each bill “takes a one-size-fits-all approach, but not all homeowner associations are alike.”

“If changes to an election process are needed, they should be resolved by the members of that specific community,” Brown added.

The election procedures from Civil Code 5100-5135 are complicated, applying to all HOAs regardless of size, and necessitate guidance from experienced and qualified managers and legal counsel. HOAs still should consider adopting reasonable board eligibility requirements to make sure associations are governed by the best available volunteers.

A few other technical bills were passed correcting typos, addressing housing density requirements, and timeshares, but will not affect most associations already in operation.

To review California law or legislation, the official site is leginfo.legislature.ca.gov. Click on “California Law,” then “Civil Code” to review the Davis-Stirling Act, which begins at Section 4000. Click on “Bill Information” to review current or past bills.

Although many law firms and organizations have websites offering law and legislation references, this is the official California web site.

Kelly G. Richardson, Esq. is a Fellow of the College of Community Association Lawyers and Senior Partner of Richardson Ober PC, a California law firm known for community association advice. Submit potential column questions to Kelly@Richardsonober.com. 

09.10.2018No comments
Clayton Kershaw will start NLDS Game 5, or NLCS Game 1 for Dodgers

ATLANTA – The Dodgers broke with expectations and started Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game 1 of their National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves, not Clayton Kershaw.

They won’t do that again.

Sign up for our Inside the Dodgers newsletter. Be the best Dodger fan you can be by getting daily intel on your favorite team. Subscribe here.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Kershaw will start the team’s next playoff game – whether that is Game 5 of this NLDS (if the Braves win Game 4 Monday) or Game 1 of the NL Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers (if the Dodgers win and close out the Braves Monday).

An NLDS Game 5 would be Wednesday at 5 p.m. at Dodger Stadium.

The NLCS will start Friday in Milwaukee.

“It was pretty simple,” Roberts said. “I think that we had our reasons why we decided on Game 1 vs. Game 2. But if there’s a potential Game 5, we feel very confident that Clayton should be the guy taking the baseball.”

Kershaw made best postseason start of his career in Game 2, holding the Braves to two hits in eight scoreless innings. Afterward, he admitted that he took a little extra pleasure from the performance because of the Dodgers’ decision to start Ryu ahead of him.

“Yeah, maybe,” he said with a smile after Game 2. “Maybe a tick, for sure.”

If the Dodgers advance to the NLCS, they will not have the home field advantage. If Kershaw is not needed to pitch against the Braves again, it’s likely Kershaw and Walker Buehler would start Games 1 and 2 (both on extra rest) at Miller Park with Ryu held back to Dodger Stadium, where he has been dominant this season (including seven scoreless innings in Game 1 against the Braves).

09.10.2018No comments
Disney reveals more details about Millennium Falcon ride at Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge

The Millennium Falcon ride coming to the new Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge lands at Disneyland and Walt Disney World will put riders in the cockpit of the fastest ship in the galaxy as they battle Imperial tie fighters during a mission to bring back a pile of loot to a vengeful space pirate.

The latest details about the backstory of the Millennium Falcon ride and the layout of the attraction were revealed in a 13-minute bonus feature on the new Blu-ray edition of “Solo: A Star Wars Story.”

The Millennium Falcon attraction will let riders take the controls of Han Solo’s iconic spaceship as they embark on a secret mission with multiple story lines. Riders aboard the attraction will be tasked with a mission by Hondo Ohnaka, a space pirate from the “Clone Wars” and “Star Wars Rebels” animated television series, according to WDWNT, a Disney fan website.

Artist concept images for the Millennium Falcon ride at Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge that were released during a Parks and Resorts panel at the D23 Expo in Anaheim in 2017. (Photo by Matt Masin, Orange County Register, SCNG)

Return with all of Hondo’s loot and bring back the Millennium Falcon without a scratch and you’ll find a few extra galactic credits in your interstellar bank account. Lose your cargo or smash up the ship and Hondo will assign a bounty hunter to track you down.

The success or failure of your mission aboard the Millennium Falcon ride will follow you throughout the rest of your visit to Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Costumed characters are expected to interact with visitors and advance the continuing story line throughout the day. That means a bounty hunter might tap you on the shoulder in the space port’s marketplace looking for Hondo’s lost loot.

“How well you do on this mission really does have an impact on your overall, land-wide story,” Walt Disney Imagineering executive Scott Trowbridge said in the bonus feature video.

Each member of your six-person crew will be assigned a task. Pilots sitting in the front will navigate the ship through an intergalactic battle. Gunners in the center of the cockpit will fend off tie fighter attacks. Engineers stationed in the rear must maintain the flight systems and repair any damage to the ship.

The cockpit’s 200 buttons, knobs and switches will be fully functional and their implementation will directly impact each mission.

“You’re truly in control of the fastest and most iconic ship in the entire galaxy,” Imagineer Asa Kalama, executive creative director of the attraction, said in the bonus feature.

Riders will walk through the interior of the Millennium Falcon on the way to the attraction and interact with items on the ship such as the hologram chess table. Once riders reach the attraction, each six-person crew will be assigned to one of seven pods aboard the Millennium Falcon during the ride.

Concept art of the new attraction shows a full-sized Corellian YT-1300 light freighter docked in a space port with exhaust spewing from the ship. A brief point-of-view video shows riders peering through a gun turret at a raging battle underway in a flaming city. The ride banks left and right as the ship’s cannons fire laser blasts.

Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens in summer 2019 at Disneyland in Anaheim and fall 2019 at Disney’s Hollywood Studios near Orlando, Florida.

 

 

 

09.10.2018No comments