Amidst the remarkable decision by Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies to break ties with Qatar, critics claim that the Trump White House has blundered into a fresh crisis that could spiral into outright regional war.
Although it remains to be seen how much the administration knew about the risks and potential rewards surrounding the breach, its roots run deep — to the heart of a protracted contest over Islam’s political identity.
U.S. policy has proven ineffective over a period of decades at forestalling this conflict, which will likely decide three matters of vast importance: first, which state will dominate the Islamic world for the next generation or more; second, which form of Islam will exercise the greatest control over politics in Muslim-majority states, and third, which strain of jihadi terrorism — if any — will prevail into the future.
To recap, the Saudis and their regional allies severed ties with Qatar on the basis of that small regime’s support for terrorist groups ranging from Hamas to al-Qaida affiliates to, more controversially, the Muslim Brotherhood. By funding those groups and offering their members safe haven, the allies announced, Qatar has repeatedly interfered in other states’ domestic affairs.
This situation came to a head in large measure because of the way Qatar’s policies on this score began dovetailing with Iran’s. Despite Qatar’s support for jihadist groups nominally at war with Tehran’s ally in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad, Assad’s de facto alliance of convenience with the Islamic State — which also wants to defeat the so-called “moderate” rebels still battling the Assad regime — has helped ensure that, from the standpoint of the Gulf states, Qatar’s support for subversion and terror feels of a piece with Iran’s.
Aside from sheer impatience and worry, the Gulf states have been pushed to act by a sense of rare geopolitical opportunity. While their patience has been pushed to the limit for some time by Qatari backing and hosting for the Brotherhood, which briefly took power in Egypt and threatened to upend the established order across the region, the balance of power is now up for grabs as ISIS begins to buckle and the Trump White House works to reverse President Obama’s play for rapprochement with Iran.
While Trump appeared content to let the Saudis and their allies move at their own speed on Qatar, a key constituency within his administration has long hoped to reorient U.S. foreign policy around designating the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization and working to isolate and defeat it accordingly.
As soon as the Gulf states dropped the boom on Qatar, Trump gave their indictment his blessing — despite Qatar’s diligent effort to stay on America’s good side as an above-the-table ally, customer and host to everything from U.S. educational institutions to the largest U.S. military base in the Gulf.
Trump’s public about-face — whatever the behind-the-scenes intricacies leading up to it — raises the risks of a conflict that spirals out of control. Qatar has sought to signal a willingness to compromise, sending sheltered senior Hamas members elsewhere. But it has also encouraged the support of Iran and the Arab states’ other potential rival, Turkey, currently negotiating troop deployments of its own on Qatari soil.
The region is just a few reckless moves or unintended consequences away from a militarized chain reaction. Yet at the same time, the United States has proven completely incapable — at extraordinary expense — of resolving the conflicts roiling political Islam that the Qatar dispute has now dragged out into the open.
Year after year of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, plus more limited actions in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, may have forestalled utter chaos or a bona fide caliphate. But they have not done the work only America’s Muslim allies can do, namely break the back of international jihadi terror and consolidate a working balance of power and governance in the region.
Without a doubt, the White House now must bear serious pressure not to mismanage what happens next. Even more important, however, is that Trump’s team hew close to the recognition that the United States cannot stage manage the details of the current dispute nor the broader thrust of the geopolitical realignment now at work — even when it moves in a direction generally or tentatively beneficial to U.S. interests and values.
The State Department has expressed its confidence in the possibility of a peaceful solution to the Qatar crisis, but it appears likely that the Egyptians and Saudis want to see the sitting regime in Qatar removed. That could push Turkey and Iran toward escalating conflict in Syria and elsewhere.
America’s Sunni allies have not gained much more than time from their relatively cautious approach to Iran’s machinations in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and they cannot play defense forever. If they have any hope of keeping U.S. confidence and improving their own domestic and regional position, successfully putting the squeeze on Qatar and its terrorist clients will have to be just the first step in a concerted new strategy, whatever the risks.
James Poulos is a columnist for the Southern California News Group.