LAST WEEK AGAINST THE SPREAD: 2-2
PLAYOFF RECORD: 3-5
FINAL REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 120-126-7
JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ENGLAND
Kickoff: 12:05 p.m.
TV: KCBS, Ch. 2
Outlook: Blake Bortles is one step away from a Super Bowl. Just like we all predicted. The only obstacle standing in the way of him and the upstart Jaguars is the greatest postseason quarterback of all time, the greatest postseason coach of all time, and the rest of the New England Patriots. No sweat, right? It may seem like an impossible task on the surface, but there’s precedent for a team like the Jaguars giving the Patriots issues. The Jets and Ravens of past years, with their dominant, turnover-forcing defenses were able to make Brady uncomfortable. It certainly helps Jacksonville’s cause that Brady may already be uncomfortable, after a mysterious right hand injury kept him out of practice this week. If he can’t grip or spin the football like usual, the Jaguars could take advantage. That, however, will require the other quarterback in this matchup to keep control of the football. Bortles hasn’t turned the ball over in the playoffs yet, but he had five in the two final weeks of the regular season. Brady, meanwhile, is a machine in the playoffs, and this will be his 12th conference championship, two more than any other quarterback in NFL history. If he can connect on a few deep balls against the Jaguars’ opportunistic secondary, it’s going to be hard for Bortles to keep up. It’s hard to bet against the Patriots here. But the Jaguars could certainly keep it closer than most will expect.
Player to watch: Leonard Fournette, RB. On a bum ankle, which caused him to leave the game, Fournette still carried the Jaguars offense past the Steelers with a three-touchdown effort. If Jacksonville has any hope of getting past the Patriots, they’ll need Fournette to carry them again. New England allowed just six rushing touchdowns all season, but that stat is somewhat misleading, given that most offenses had to throw to catch up with the Patriots. The more telling stat: They allowed 4.7 yards per carry, worse than 30 other teams in the NFL. Fournette might be bigger than 90 percent of the Patriots’ undersized defense, meaning there’s potential for him to break plenty of tackles. If the Jaguars can’t establish the run, they’re doomed here. So expect Fournette to tote the rock early and often on Sunday.
Line: Patriots by 7.5
Pick: Patriots, 27-24
MINNESOTA AT PHILADELPHIA
Kickoff: 3:40 p.m.
TV: Fox, Ch. 11
Outlook: At the start of the 2016 season, both Case Keenum and Nick Foles were jockeying for position on a quarterback depth chart determined by then-Rams coach Jeff Fisher. Oh, how far they’ve come. Now, one will be starting in the Super Bowl, and how both handle themselves in this crucial NFC championship showdown will go a long way in determining who receives that improbable honor. But in reality, this matchup is about defense. Two of the NFL’s best defenses will do their best to make the opposing quarterback miserable. The Vikings are the better all-around unit, with a secondary that’s been mostly dominant this season and a stout front seven to boot. The Eagles, meanwhile, are elite up front and experts at creating pressure in both the run and the pass game. If Philadelphia can make Keenum uncomfortable from the start, forcing him into mistakes, then he won’t have a chance to test its exploitable secondary. The Eagles road-grading offensive line will help mitigate the Vikings pass rush, but that leaves Foles to make plays, which has not exactly been a comfortable venture over the past few weeks. Philadelphia is better suited if this game is low-scoring — the over/under sits at 38.5 — but if Minnesota can score early, it should have the advantage. Regardless, this is going to be close.
Player to watch: Stefon Diggs, WR. The hero of the Minneapolis Miracle is riding high right now, as the Vikings head to Philadelphia for a matchup against a far worse secondary than the one he torched last week. Exploiting the Eagles defense means airing the ball out, and Diggs is the most likely target for the deep ball in Minnesota’s offense. The Eagles may choose to focus in on Diggs, but that would only leave All-Pro Adam Thielen open on the other side of the field. Chances are Diggs will get the better of the two matchups, and with confidence between him and Keenum at an all-time high, here’s betting that Diggs gets plenty of opportunity. In such a defense-heavy matchup, a big play could really turn the tide.
Line: Vikings by 3
Pick: Vikings, 22-17